Daily FX Trends - Mecklai Financial

Daily FX Trends - Commentaries

	USD/INR	EURO/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
Macro Support-Resistance Levels	92.50-95.25	1.1250-1.2100	1.2800-1.3700	150.00-162.50	0.7400-0.8300
Sentiment against USD	Negative	Positive	Positive	Negative	Negative
Forecast for the day	91.95-92.95	1.1625-1.1775	1.3350-1.3475	157.85-158.85	0.7865-0.7930

Spot rupee ended at 92.58/59 to a dollar after opening the day at 92.62/63 level. The rupee mostly traded around 92.60 level supported by surge in risk sentiment following ceasefire announcement by US. Equities rejoiced the fall in crude prices and the ceasefire with bulls lifting the indexes by 3.85 from previous close.
In this week’s RBI MPC meeting, the RBI left its key repo rate unchanged at 5.25 for the second straight meeting and maintained a neutral stance. The decision was in line with market forecasts, as the Iran war threatened GDP growth and fuelled inflationary pressures.
On the economic outlook, the RBI raised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025/26 to 7.6, up from its earlier estimate of 7.4, while inflation is expected to remain below the central bank's target of 4. Meanwhile, GDP growth for FY2026/27 is estimated at 6.9, Average Inflation for FY27 is projected at 4.6.
DXY is trading slightly lower at 99.80 level as Trump’s deadline for Iran deal nears. Crude prices are trading a tad lower, but still above the $100/bbl.
EUR/USD briefly climbed above 1.17 level, its highest since late February, following the Ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. Data released from Germany showed factory orders rose 0.9 m/m in February 2026, rebounding from a 11.1 slump in January, but below forecasts for a 2 increase. The S&P Global Germany Construction PMI rose to 48.0 in March 2026 from 43.7 in February, signalling a slower contraction in total activity.
Data released from Germany showed factory orders rose 0.9 m/m in February 2026, rebounding from a 11.1 slump in January, but below forecasts for a 2 increase. The S&P Global Germany Construction PMI rose to 48.0 in March 2026 from 43.7 in February, signalling a slower contraction in total activity.
GBPUSD is holding on to its gains above 1.34 level. Data from UK showed Halifax House Price index showed UK house prices rose 0.8 y/y in March 2026, below expectations for 1.5 growth and down from a revised 1.2 in February, marking the softest annual growth in three months.
Important data releases scheduled today: US: FOMC Meeting Minutes.

The rupee has opened higher today at 92.62 levels, after US-Israel and Iran had agreed for a two-week ceasefire paving the way for more time for a negotiated settlement. After the announcement, crude oil prices crashed more than 15 to trade below $100/bbl. Equity market benchmarks are up sharply by about 3.5 in early trades.

RBI is likely to announce its monetary policy decision today.

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