Daily FX Trends - Mecklai Financial

Daily FX Trends - Commentaries

	USD/INR	EURO/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
Macro Support-Resistance Levels	88.50-92.50	1.1250-1.2100	1.2800-1.3700	42.00-159.00	0.7600-0.8300
Sentiment against USD	Positive	Negative	Negative	Positive	Negative
Forecast for the day	90.65-91.00	1.1695-1.1780	1.3290-1.3400	154.25-155.35	0.7935-0.7975

Spot rupee ended at 91.03/04 to a dollar level after opening at 90.79/80 level. The rupee depreciated further to an all-time low of 90.7925 level.
The HSBC India Composite PMI fell to 58.9 in December 2025 from a final 59.7 in the prior month, flash data showed. It was the lowest reading since February, due to softer growth across manufacturing and service sectors. Mfg. PMI eased to 55.7 in December 2025 from 56.6 in November, marking the weakest improvement in manufacturing conditions since December 2023. Services PMI fell to 59.1 in December 2025 from 59.8 in November, pointing to a slightly slower but still strong expansion in services activity,
DXY is trading lower at 98.33 level today. GBPUSD is under pressure after UK labour data showed that employment conditions pointed to further cooling in November. Pay rolled employment fell by -38k on the month, a -0.1 mom. Annual drop widened to -171k, or 0.6 y/y. Annual payroll growth has now been negative every month since March. Wage indicators showed clearer signs of easing at the margin. Median monthly pay growth slowed sharply to 2.7 y/y, down from 3.7 previously and less than half the pace seen in August. At the same time, the claimant count rose by 20.1k. That said, broader earnings data remains elevated. In the three months to October, unemployment rate edged up from 5.0 to 5.1. Average earnings growth surprised to the upside, rising 4.7 y/y including bonuses and 4.6 y/y excluding bonuses. However, the Flash Mfg. and Services PMI witnessed uptick in December to 51.2 and 52.1 respectively versus 50.3 and 51.6 in November.
EURUSD gains are capped as data for December showed Eurozone growth is capped. December Mfg. MI slipped to 49.2 from 49.6, an eight-month low while Services MI also eased to 52.6 from 53.6, dragging the composite PMI down to 51.9 from 53.8, signaling a broader slowdown in activity. Major economies like Germany and France also showed a similar trend.
Markets will be looking forward to the final set of economic data from the US tonight.

Rupee opened marginally lower at 90.80 levels despite improvement in the trade figures along with dollar weakness in overseas markets. Equity market benchmarks are trading about 0.2 lower today.

DXY is trading steady at 98.24 level. Data released overnight showed NY Empire State Mfg. index in the US dropped to -3.9 in December from a one-year high of 18.7 in November undershooting forecasts of 10, signaling a return to contraction.

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