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In response to the Chinese devaluation, the rupee closed the week with rupee at
65 to a dollar. The team at Mecklai has had an extraordinarily busy week with
phones ringing off the hook with everybody from clients to media wanting to
know where the rupee is headed...
August, 2015
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The budget indicated a gradual withdrawal of stimulus, but it is unlikely to have a largeimpact on inflation .The FY10-11 budget indicated the governments decision to ramp up its spending over the next fiscal year, especially in social services, rural development and infrastructure. The gross issuance programme came in at INR4.6trn, with net issuance of INR3.45trn. In our view, the partial withdrawal of indirect tax cuts is a positive for government revenue.
March, 2010
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While we believe the global recession has ended, we expect that the return to growth will be short-lived – by mid-2011, the global economy could dip into a slowdown (and possibly a recession) again. This is because we appear to be in a period of higher economic volatility – the winter of a Kondratieff cycle – and governments and central banks have more or less denuded their armories.
January, 2010
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We believe that reports of the dollar’s demise are greatly exaggerated. First of all, while the dollar’s share in reserves of advanced countries has fallen from 70% in value terms to 66% since 1999 (and the euro’s has risen from around 18% to 24%), the drop is quite modest and, in any case, most of this is a result of the cyclical decline in the value of the dollar.
December, 2009
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Russia, India and South Africa were the most mature of 14 emerging FX markets we studied, using data from the last (2007) BIS survey of central banks. They each scored more than 50 on the Market Maturity Index (MMI), suggesting they are more than halfway there, as compared to the fully mature markets, like the US.
August, 2009
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The fertilizer industry plays a pivotal role in the Indian economy supporting the ongoing need of increased farm productivity. The industry as a whole is highly regulated with production quotas and an administered price mechanism (APM) that insulates farmers from high prices. Fertilizer producers are compensated via a subsidy that accounts for the differential between a commercial price and the administered price of fertilizers.
August, 2009
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Till December 2007, Asia appeared immune to the credit crisis. Indeed, with capital flows reaching unprecedented levels in SH2007, many felt that Asia,in general, and India, in particular, had decoupled from the US economy.
November, 2008
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Commodity prices, which have taken over the headlines recently, have actually been on an uptrend since 2001. Unsurprisingly, the dollar has been falling steadily since about that time, too, despite the fact that US interest rates have had a relatively up and down ride during this period.
May, 2008
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The carbon market has evolved quietly over the past few years to where it is now one of the sexier new games in town; the Ministry of Food & Civil Supplies has notified carbon credits as a commodity permissible for futures trading under the FCRA,and MCXhas already started offering futures on carbon credits.
January, 2008
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Gold has been in a bull market since 2000, with the nominal price coming very close to its all time high of $ 854 per troy ounce, which was registered in 1980, before turning down below $ 800. While the rise in gold prices has been seen as part of a wider commodity bull run, our analysis shows that in real – i.e., inflation-adjusted – terms, gold prices have reached less than half their level of the 1980 high.
November, 2007
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The government's recent move to close the capital account by clamping down on ECB's makes a mockery of the Finance Minister's oft-stated belief that 10% growth is quite readily achievable. India Inc's borrowing costs will rise, and, as usual, smaller companies will suffer more than larger ones.
August, 2007
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