The Yen weakened for the third straight day past 148 per dollar as a 90-day extension of the US–China trade truce reduced safe-haven demand and ahead of the US CPI numbers. The BoJ’s July 30–31 Summary of Opinions showed a cautious stance, with policymakers seeking more data before adjusting rates. Despite the US–Japan tariff deal, Japan’s growth outlook remains subdued, and current policy will stay accommodative for at least 2–3 more months. However, if data improves and trade risks ease, rate hikes could resume by year-end, with scope for more in 2025.Japan’s real wages fell 1.3% y/y in June, the sixth straight decline, as inflation outpaced wage growth. Nominal wages rose 2.5% y/y, missing expectations.

Globally, markets start the week on a cautious note amid uncertainty and geopolitics. The dollar’s path hinges on US inflation data and Fed decision. The yen may benefit from risk aversion if trade tensions rise.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY is trading near 148.26, holding a bullish bias after breaking above the 148.00 mark and the 50-day EMA. Immediate resistance is seen at 148.50, followed by 148.80 and the key upside target at 150.90. Support lies at 147.60, then 147.00; a break below 145.84 could signal a deeper pullback toward 142.66. Overall, as long as the pair stays above 147.50, momentum favour’s further gains, but rejection near 148.50 could trigger short-term consolidation.

Meanwhile, markets await key Japanese data including Q2 GDP, the Reuters Tankan survey, PPI, and machine tool orders.